This report delves into the hypothetical yet increasingly plausible scenario of 25% global Bitcoin ownership. Leveraging key economic principles and adoption trends, it examines how Bitcoin’s fixed supply and growing global interest might lead to an unprecedented surge in its value.
Using various modeling techniques, the report estimates potential Bitcoin prices, considers its role as a global reserve asset, and discusses the societal implications of widespread Bitcoin adoption. Whether you’re a seasoned investor, a crypto enthusiast, or simply curious about the future of money, this report provides invaluable insights into Bitcoin’s transformative potential.
Given the fixed supply of Bitcoin at 21,000,000, if 25% of humanity owed Bitcoin, what would the price per Bitcoin?
Well to calculate the price per Bitcoin under the assumption that 25% of humanity owns Bitcoin, we need to make a few assumptions about demand and distribution. Let’s break it down:
Assumptions:
- Human Population: The current global population is approximately 8 billion people.
- 25% of 8 billion = 2 billion people owning Bitcoin.
- Bitcoin Fixed Supply: The total supply is fixed at 21 million BTC.
- If distributed evenly, each of the 2 billion owners would hold 21,000,0002,000,000,000=0.0105\frac{21,000,000}{2,000,000,000} = 0.0105 BTC.
- Market Capitalization: The total value of all Bitcoin would need to match the total wealth held by Bitcoin owners.
- Let’s assume Bitcoin captures some percentage of global wealth as demand grows.
Global Wealth Estimation
The estimated global wealth (as of 2024) is approximately $500 trillion USD.
Scenarios:
- Bitcoin Captures 1% of Global Wealth:
- Total value of Bitcoin = 1% of $500 trillion = $5 trillion.
- Price per Bitcoin = Total Bitcoin ValueTotal BTC Supply=5,000,000,000,00021,000,000\frac{\text{Total Bitcoin Value}}{\text{Total BTC Supply}} = \frac{5,000,000,000,000}{21,000,000} ≈ $238,095/BTC.
- Bitcoin Captures 5% of Global Wealth:
- Total value of Bitcoin = 5% of $500 trillion = $25 trillion.
- Price per Bitcoin = 25,000,000,000,00021,000,000\frac{25,000,000,000,000}{21,000,000} ≈ $1,190,476/BTC.
- Bitcoin Captures 10% of Global Wealth:
- Total value of Bitcoin = 10% of $500 trillion = $50 trillion.
- Price per Bitcoin = 50,000,000,000,00021,000,000\frac{50,000,000,000,000}{21,000,000} ≈ $2,380,952/BTC.
Conclusion
The price per Bitcoin depends heavily on the total wealth Bitcoin captures:
- At 1% global wealth capture: $238,095/BTC.
- At 5% global wealth capture: $1,190,476/BTC.
- At 10% global wealth capture: $2,380,952/BTC.
These are simplified estimates. Real-world factors like uneven distribution, market dynamics, adoption rates, and government regulations would also influence the price significantly.
WILL THE MAGIC YEAR WILL BE 2040?
The timeline for Bitcoin reaching 25% global adoption is uncertain but is expected to align with the broader adoption of blockchain technologies and increasing interest in decentralized finance. Estimates from experts and adoption curve analyses suggest this milestone could occur around 2040, given Bitcoin’s current growth trajectory and its role as a digital store of value.
Key drivers include millennials’ increasing preference for cryptocurrency, the integration of crypto into traditional financial systems, and growing institutional and governmental interest in blockchain. However, the pace may vary due to regulatory developments, technological innovations, and market conditions
Coach J.P. Money is the founder of Coach J.P. Money. He is an expert in Coaching and Money! He is also a writer, global citizen eco-activist, visionary, musician, artist, entertainer, businessman, investor, life coach, and syndicated columnist. He is also known as the music artist “Johnny Punish”; a name given to him by a bandmate during his Punk Rock years fronting the rogue underground punk band “Twisted Nixon”
His Expat home base since the late 1990s is Mexico. J.P. Money, aka Charles Bivona Jr., was educated at the University of Nevada Las Vegas (1980-81) and California State University Fullerton (1981-1984) with studies in accounting, finance and business. He bought is first real estate income property at 17 years old with no money down. He has been debt-free and building wealth since 1998.
Before the “internets” had been invented, he also owned and ran (5) national newspapers in the United States of America from 1987-1998. In addition, he created and ran the important online media sites; HireVeterans.com (2004-2020) and VT Foreign Policy (2004-2023).
J.P. Money is married to Queen Albertina from Sinaloa Mexico (1985). Together they have 3 adult children and 7 grandkids. They live in Baja Mexico at the home they built together out of plastic bags and dirt (Super Adobe). Now they share their epic artistic piece with the world as a unique luxury BnB called “Hacienda Eco-Domes“.
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